Growth plans die on cash, not demand
Plenty of stores can find more revenue. The harder question is whether the cash arrives in time to pay for the inventory, ads and people that revenue depends on. Scaling spend, holding stock and waiting on payment timing can all pull cash out of the business faster than sales bring it back in. A plan that looks healthy on a revenue chart can still run you dry in month four.
This calculator models both sides at once. It grows your revenue forward, then tracks the cash that growth consumes, so you can see the squeeze coming and size the funding to get through it.
How the calculator works
Each month the model builds revenue from three channels, then runs it through your costs, inventory and cash timing. Paid revenue starts from the part of your current revenue your ads actually explain:
paid revenue = ad spend × paid MER
- Paid grows with your spend and its growth rate, with efficiency fading as spend scales through the CAC elasticity setting.
- Organic compounds at its own growth rate and picks up any CRO and average order value gains you model.
- Returning comes from a cohort model: each month of new customers reorders at your 30, 60 and 90-day rates, then keeps returning at a tapering monthly rate after that.
Because paid is derived from the revenue your other channels do not explain, month one ties back to your current revenue instead of starting from an inflated number.
Cash, buffer and capital required
Revenue is only cash once it is collected, so the model applies your payment timing before it counts money as in the bank. Against that it charges ad spend, inventory deposits and balances, operating costs and interest. When the running cash would fall below the buffer you set, the capital required figure captures the largest gap. It shows whether or not you have turned on financing, so a plan that would run you out of cash is always flagged.
The buffer is the point. Sizing capital to reach zero is how businesses get caught short. Set a buffer you are comfortable operating above, and let the tool tell you the funding needed to stay there through the tightest month.
Comparing debt, equity and RBF
Each funding type behaves the way it does in real life. Debt draws on a credit line, charges interest on the balance, and pays principal back from surplus cash once you are clear of the buffer, like a revolving facility. Equity draws against a cap and is never repaid. Revenue-based financing advances cash and takes a share of collected revenue each month until the agreed multiple is cleared. If a facility cannot cover the full gap, the tool says cash still falls short rather than pretending the plan is funded.
Assumptions and limitations
- It is a model. Real trading brings shocks a forecast cannot predict. Treat the output as a plan to pressure-test, not a guarantee.
- Inputs drive everything. Rough repeat rates or margins produce rough forecasts. Use figures grounded in your own data.
- Seasonality is relative. The curve is normalised to your start month, so it shows the shape of your year rather than shifting your overall level.
Use it to find the month cash gets tight and size the funding you would need, then confirm against your accounts. If you want that growth plan built and delivered, that is what our integrated digital strategy service does.
